PART FOUR: The West-Islam conflict interstate
The omnipotence of the future Islamic terrorism of State
Arab and Muslim states, when they become fundamentalists, multiply the effectiveness of terrorism by making available their secret services and their arsenals of weapons of mass destruction. Faced with state terrorism and its Islamic suicide bombers, the fight against terrorism led by the West will be in vain. It will be in danger of implosion.
Terrorism of unprecedented efficiency
Gradually, as they seize control of the Arab-Muslim states, the fundamentalists will use to develop terrorist actions in the "dar al-Harb," the infidel territory. Primary target: the West.
The fundamentalists will have the chemical and bacteriological laboratories established and developed over many years by Algeria, Syria, Pakistan and Iran. And they have at their disposal the intelligence services of these states. The affiliation of Islamist terrorism in the state apparatus, will multiply its effectiveness.This system will plan throughout the Muslim world.
Terror in the ports
The problem is nightmares Ports Security Services U.S.: they fear that Islamic fundamentalists n'acheminent to one of the ports of the United States, container, a nuclear bomb or biochemical, that they would explode when it came its destination. To prevent this, we must know the content and origin of the 5.7 billion containers from around the world. How to control them all? The Americans are developing enhanced safety standards: scanners giant, sophisticated networks, adequate infrastructure, skilled personnel, and asked twenty international ports, representing 80% of container traffic to the United States to apply the same rules them. The American plan is estimated at a cost of $ 2 billion to be financed by a general tax on people and goods.
In Europe, security would cost between 80 and 100 euros per container. For, example, the application Havre three or four scanners Sycoscan each worth 4.5 million euros. The International Maritime Organization intends to adopt a new charter in December 2002 global security for all traffic including passenger liners. Funding will likely be around the same charge so as not to distort competition between European ports.
A successful terrorist attack, like chemical or biological or nuclear western port would result in a widespread psychosis and a lead in international trade have greatly diminished by the economic crisis, which is thereby increased.
Airliners destroyed the missile mobile
The airports are like sieves, as demonstrated recently a team of Spanish journalists who tested a few in Europe. As for the holds of aircraft, it is difficult to completely secure with respect to the amount of luggage on board. Staff, filling kerosene, airport of call in the third world, night surveillance aircraft stationed, are all points which do not have all the necessary safety guarantees.
Threats also come from outside the airport, in the form of missile.On 19 August, a giant Russian helicopter Mi-26 was shot down by a missile while it was his approach to the base Khankala, near Grozny. Result: 119 dead. It is a portable Strela missile, Russian-made, equipped with an infrared detector that caused the disaster. A similar missile shot down an MI-24 within 15 days.These missiles are deadly. Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, and China produce such missiles.
To shoot down a jetliner, these portable missiles of short to medium range, easy to use, are an obvious choice weapon. They are transported in the trunk of a car. At night, the terrorist will roll up to a deserted place, a forest, a field in the axis of a track.From there, it will pull in the direction of an airliner flying between one thousand and three thousand feet, before landing or before takeoff. After shooting his target, the terrorist released its missile launcher in the trunk of his car and leave.
Install a surveillance around airports means a secure area of a radius of 20 km, and mobilization of large numbers. It will also equip the aircraft missile decoys. For cargo aircraft that will be effective as long to find enough crews ready to continue performing their jobs in as special.
Again, the western economies already weakened by the crisis, will suffer a fatal blow.
Dirty bombs in cities
Terrorists spread to the western cities of radioactive materials which emit ionizing radiation harmful to health. Passersby will be irradiated without realizing it. That material can be dispersed by the explosion of a detonator classic, spreading a cloud of radioactive dust over the city: it is "dirty bomb."
The effect is total panic. Trafficking of radioactive materials has grown notably since the fall of the Soviet empire. These radioactive materials are easily accessible to terrorists. In January 1998, the Chechen police discovered in a disused quarry near Grozny, an old bottle containing an important source of radiation. These materials are readily available retroactive to terrorists. More seriously: December 29, 1998, a container emitting strong radiation, to which was attached a bomb was discovered in Argun, 15 km east of Grozny.
The explosion of dirty bombs in major Western cities will cause an effect of psychosis disrupt economic life.
Mini-nuclear bombs and other procedures
Terrorists will use mini-portable atomic bombs in a suitcase.These devices exist, they are made in Russia. They were scattered in Islam by mafia networks and for the corruption Russia.
Many other options available to terrorists, such as spills of microbial agents to low doses of chlorine in the water pipes of large cities; dispersion of toxic gas in places with high population density, as did Aoun with the cult sarin gas in Tokyo subway in 1995, a loaf of TNT, exploded at rush hour in one of the Paris metro tunnels passing under the Seine, would inundate a portion of the network equipment deposits on the tracks of high-speed trains.
Terrorists the means to disrupt the economic and social western swarm.
The bomber: an absolute weapon
The bombers give the Islamic terrorism unprecedented efficiency.
The spirit increases the effectiveness of kamikaze terrorist action. Islamic fundamentalism is a great provider. He draws at will in youth. Islam is at its peak population: according to the UN, in 1980, the percentage of 15-24 year olds was 20%. This percentage will continue until 2005, falling to 18% in 2020. Islam will not be sparing of human life.
Islamist terrorism, by combining the systematic use of suicide bombers and the power of state apparatuses, will reach an unprecedented level of efficiency. This terrorism will apply to a Western society has reached it, a level of complexity is also unprecedented, making it a giant porcelain. The capacity of the West handle shocks terrorists is limited. Especially since its demography is also depressed than Islam is flourishing. The West will try to defeat terrorism by fighting terrorism. This battle is already lost. Whatever the means put in place, they will not be enough to stem the steady stream of suicide bombers, some of which will be equipped with weapons of mass destruction.
It will be a web of Penelope requiring exorbitant funds that Western economies in crisis can no longer afford.
Israel, the West lab
Israel has intelligence services are among the best in the world.They are able to infiltrate the Arab circles, thanks to Israel from North Africa, connoisseurs of language and Arab-Muslim culture.Israel has extensive experience in combating terrorism and fails to stem the rise of terrorism. The bombers, who nevertheless have used so far as conventional explosives, undermine Israel's economy and scare away his brains. The system kamikaze holds in check the Israeli counter-terrorism.
Israel is the laboratory of the West in this area. Its failures are those of the West.
Where the Israeli secret service fail, how their U.S. counterparts they succeed? They are so WASP, so little skilled in infiltration of Muslim circles .... September 11 showed that high technology, that of spy satellites and computer networks of NASA, the large ears of America, not enough to anticipate and defuse the attempted attacks. It is necessary to set up intelligence "human", that is to say people from the field to infiltrate terrorists: mission impossible.
Against terrorism, genocide, nuclear
The West, giant porcelain threatened with destruction by the Islamic state terrorism, will be obliged to ensure its survival by nuclear strikes against cities. Israel, a tiny and landlocked in Islamic very vulnerable, will probably be the first Western country to go on the offensive nuclear. Europe's soft underbelly of the West, will be plunged into chaos.
Israeli nuclear response
The area of Israel is 20.325 kilometers square. A suicide bomber detonated a bomb to make chemical or biological, and the handkerchief becomes unbearable: it has no space for a retreat.
The Yom Kippur War in 1973 left a bad memory to the Israelis.Egypt and Syria were about to defeat the IDF. Without the intervention (illegal) of the Eighth U.S. aircraft fleet, the war would have turned to disaster for Israel. Israel has 6 million only with a low birth rate, shall not refuse a significant loss. While his enemies, with their superabundant numbers of young, easily bear slaughter in their ranks. A commitment to conventional large-scale, would be too risky for the Jewish state.
Israel does not resign itself to disappear. The leaders will be faced with the need to respond to terrorist actions with weapons of mass destruction by nuclear strikes to annihilate the enemy to sider, reduced to impotence by mass destruction, genocidal extermination. Like what did the United States by launching the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. For Israel, it will be this, or disappear.
The United States, spearheading the West
The United States will follow suit Israel also trigger the firing of atomic destruction. Lightning nuclear ablaze the Middle East, making millions of victims. The West-Islam clash will be total. In this war, the United States is the spearhead of the West, which Israel is an outpost playing survival against neighboring states and Islamic fundamentalists became more than ever fanatically committed to the war.
Europe is directly exposed to the Islamic threat to its geographical position. Crippled by bad conscience and paralyzing institutional divisions, she has no choice ... The confrontation is imposed by the Islamic fundamentalists: they refer to as the enemy, too, against his will. A second class enemy at the moment, because they focus first on the American superpower "the great Satan" and Israel "the little Satan." This last figure in the priorities because of its presence, never accepted the "Dar al-Islam," the house of Islam.
Control the Middle East
In this war, the United States continue a vital strategic objective: the takeover of the oil from the Middle East, which it is impossible to do without. The needs are enormous. The region accounts for 43% of world production. In 2020, will be 51%. Deposits elsewhere, such as the Caspian are not able to replace those in the Middle East.
It will be out of the question for the United States to leave these huge quantities of black gold in the hands of fundamentalists, who will then own a means of blackmail on the all-powerful West. They focus their full military effort in this region, as shown already the attack on Iraq.
Europe's soft underbelly of the West
Europe will suffer directly the aftermath of this confrontation Middle East. It sold off its military budget since the start of the East-West détente thinking she had no enemies. It transferred to its social spending funds used for the military. European leaders claim to exercise a moral authority on world affairs, as they have sacrificed military budgets. How many divisions of Europe has she? Very few. But unlike the pope, without divisions to meet Stalin, has greatly contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union by galvanizing the very religious Catholic Poland, European leaders are not religious leaders, they do not have the spiritual authority of the latter. They are secular rule, desecrated. Without substantial military force to support them, their opinions are not heard.
Europe is especially unlucky: its territory inhabited by 26 million Muslims spend the frontline West-Islam, civil wars matrix to come, which will be fueled by the Third World War and the Great Depression. This will jump in the unemployment figures in immigrant populations. States will be forced to reduce welfare, because revenues will be reduced as a trickle because of the economic contraction. This will result in a sharp deterioration in living conditions of young people in the suburbs, which will increase their responsiveness to the preaching of Islamic fundamentalists.
France was the paradigm of the nation-state and all regions and assimilated immigrants. But the machine to assimilate butta immigration Arab Muslim and African. Immigrants from other cultures retain their community values rather than abdicate. The case is particularly Asians. They become part of French life, they excel in school, at work and in the company, and they do not cause violence. But they do not assimilate and maintain a strong community life.
In Britain, the Pakistani Muslim community does not assimilate, while exhibiting separatist tendencies, even hegemonic, with a strong Islamist. Benelux, Germany, Italy and Spain have similar problems. Assimilation jams where there is a clash of civilizations. Especially with Islam. In peacetime, this phenomenon leads to delinquency increasing dose. In the context of World War III, it will lead to the inter-war, which ignites most of Europe.
France and Britain use their nuclear weapons
Britain and France possess sophisticated nuclear weapons: they alone give a military weight in Europe. The decision to use these weapons up to the French and British governments.
Islamic states will attack Europe. In their arsenals provide the means. They were provided by the former USSR, China and Western countries producing arms, especially the United States, Britain, Italy, France. All these countries have been engaged for decades in a fierce competition to provide Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Pakistan, Iran, Syria, Libya and other Arab and Muslim countries by fighter-bombers and helicopters latest in modern missile frigates, a submarine attack performance. And they will be supplied with bombs and rockets short and medium range by Pakistan, it soon controlled by their counterparts in the raw. China and North Korea will complement those selections, as part of the axis-Muslim Asia. They solve the problems of equipment maintenance by cannibalization, the use of engineers and technicians Western and Russian attracted copious remuneration.
Europe is a tempting prey. It is an economic giant, a huge single market, but helpless. It has no political leadership in the full sense of the word. It will be directly exposed to the threat of Islamic fundamentalist not its location. Its southern sector will be hit by conventional attacks via Gibraltar, the Italian Peninsula and the Balkans. And missile loads bacteriological, chemical or nuclear fired from North Africa and the Balkans over southern Germany, southern France and Spain. Rome, a city highly symbolic as it hosts the Vatican, will be referred. Europe is terrible setbacks wipe with their attendant massacres and destruction.
Britain and France will be up against the wall. Britain will be decided fairly quickly to use its nuclear weapons. France might hesitate any longer to finally solve it, too, under the violence of Muslim attacks.