Pretending to believe in a chemical attack on the Syrian government against its own people , Washington , London and Paris are beating the drums of war. Should we take these threats seriously from States announced as imminent , since more than two years , the fall of Syria? Although one should not exclude this option, it is less likely that an intervention organized by Saudi Arabia. This agitation would rather aim to test the responses of Russia and Iran .
What fly has stung the Nobel Peace Prize Barack Obama? Sunday, August 25 , the White House issued a statement in which an anonymous senior official said that there is " little doubt" the use by Syria chemical weapons against his opposition. The statement added that Syria 's agreement to let in the UN inspectors in the area is "too late to be credible ."
If the use of chemical weapons on the outskirts of Damascus , Wednesday, August 21, 2013 is likely , the Security Council of the United Nations has not concluded that the fact that the Syrian government. Emergency meeting at the request of the West, the ambassadors were surprised to see their Russian colleague present their satellite photos showing the firing of two rounds at 1:35 am, from the rebel zone Duma in rebel areas affected by gas (at Jobar and between Arbin and Zamalka ) at times coinciding with disorders related. The pictures do not tell us whether it is chemical shells , but they suggest that the " Brigade of Islam" , which occupies Duma has made a stone three times : first remove the support of his rivals in the opposition , on the other hand accuse Syria of using chemical weapons , finally disrupt the offensive of the Syrian Arab army to clear the capital.
If the Syrian government , as his enemy - Israel is not a signatory to the Convention against chemical weapons and has large stocks , the jihadists have also , as confirmed by Carla Del Ponte, to the fury of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. In December , the Free Syrian Army had released a video showing a chemical laboratory and threatening the Alawites . This week, the government discovered several caches of chemical weapons, gas masks and antidotes in the suburbs of Damascus. The products came from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United States and the Netherlands . It is also at the request of the Syrian government, not the West , as UN inspectors are present in Syria for two weeks to investigate allegations of use. Finally , on 29 May 2013, the Turkish police arrested a dozen members of the Al- Front Nosra and seized chemical weapons were to be used in Syria.
However, President Obama met Friday 's National Security Council to review the Power attack options against Syria in the presence of Ambassador Samantha , leading liberal hawks . He decided to strengthen the U.S. military presence in the Mediterranean by sending a fourth destroyer, loaded with cruise missiles , the USS Ramage . It adds to the USS Gravely , USS Barry and USS Mahan is maintained in the zone when he had to return to port.
Saturday he called on the phone with British Prime Minister David Cameron. And on Sunday , he spoke with French President Francois Hollande. The three men agreed that it had to be done without specifying how. Sunday again, the Secretary of State John Kerry called his British , French , Canadian and Russian counterparts to say that the United States was convinced that Syria had crossed the "red line" . If the first three speakers listened finger on the seam of the pants, the Russian Sergey Lavrov expressed surprise that Washington is pronounced before the report of the UN inspectors . He answered on the " extremely grave consequences " that represents an intervention in the region.
Monday the French defense minister , Jean -Yves Le Drian was in Qatar and was to go to the UAE to coordinate with them. While the Israeli national security adviser , General Yaakov Amidror , was received at the White House. During a telephone conversation between the British Prime Minister David Cameron and Russian President Vladimir Putin , it stressed that there was no evidence of use of chemical weapons by Syria. For its part, the Chinese Vice- Minister of Foreign Affairs , Li Baodong , called his U.S. counterpart , Wendy R. Sherman, to call the United States to exercise restraint. Aware of the risk of a regional war in which Christians would suffer , Francis Pope reiterated his call for peace .
Should we therefore think that the West will go to war without a mandate from the Security Council, as NATO did in Yugoslavia? This is unlikely because at the time Russia was in ruins, today it should intervene after issuing three vetoes to protect Syria or waive any international action. However Sergey Lavrov has wisely rejected a Third World War . He said that his country was not ready to go to war against anyone , even about Syria. It could therefore be an indirect intervention in support of Syria , as China did during the Vietnam War .
Iran then informed through his Deputy Chief of Staff , Massoud Jazayeri , that for him the attack on Syria would be crossing the "red line" and that if she went to act , the White House endure "serious consequences." While Iran has neither the resources of Russia, or alliances , but it is certainly one of the top 10 global military powers. Therefore, attacking Syria is to take the risk of retaliation against Israel and uprisings in much of the Arab world, including Saudi Arabia. The recent intervention of the Lebanese Hezbollah and the statements of its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah , such as the Palestinian organization PFLP- General Command , leave no doubt.
Questioned by the Russian press , Syrian President Bashar al -Assad , said: "The statements made by politicians united Americans , Western and other countries is an insult to common sense and an expression of contempt for public opinion their peoples. This is nonsense : we first accused , then the evidence they gather . This task is carried out by a powerful country , the United States ( ... ) This kind of accusation is purely political , they respond to the series of victories recorded by government forces on the terrorists. "
In Russia, the President of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Duma, the journalist and geopolitics Alexei Pushkov , commented on his Twitter account : " Washington and London have said Assad guilty before the conclusions of UN inspectors . They will not accept a guilty verdict . Any verdict will be rejected . "
The principle of a new war in Syria bad frame with the economic problems of the United States and Europeans. If selling weapons is a way to earn money , destroy a state without hope of return in the short or medium term , can worsen the situation.
According to a Reuters / Ipsos poll conducted after the attack of 21 August , 60% of United Uniens opposed intervention in Syria against 9% who support it . They were convinced of the use of chemical weapons in Syria, they remain 46% to oppose the war and become 25% support it. The same survey indicates that Americans like even less the secret war : while 89 % said it should not be to arm the rebels, against 11% who want to arm again. Finally, four options were offered to respondents : airstrikes ( supported by 12%), creating a no-fly zone ( 11%), the financing of a multinational force ( 9%), and direct U.S. action ( 4%).
In France , Le Figaro , published by the arms dealer Dassault, has asked his readers at the end of the day, they were 79.60 % to oppose the war against 20.40% in support .
It will certainly be difficult for Westerners to turn public opinion and go to war.
Another interpretation of events is possible: some videos showing the victims of chemical attacks circulated on the Internet a few hours before the attacks . It will always be possible for Westerners to "discover" the deception in time and backtracking . However the case of chemical weapons in Iraq has shown that Westerners could lie to the international community to recognize harmless once their package done.
The charges jihadists and their Western sponsors involved while the Syrian Arab Army launched a major offensive , "Shield of Damascus " to release the capital. The shot of the two shells of the " Brigade of Islam " are at the beginning of the offensive , which was held for 5 days and resulted in significant losses among jihadists ( at least 1,500 killed and wounded , about 25,000 present). All this agitation may be only psychological warfare to both hide this defeat and attempt to cripple the Syrian offensive. This is mainly a way for Washington to test the Iranian response after the election of Sheikh Hassan Rohani to his presidency. And it is now clear that it will not oppose the policy of the Supreme Leader , Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
However, during the war against Libya , I had underestimated the ability of the United States to violate all the rules , including those of NATO. While it based on documents of the Atlantic Alliance, I insisted on the long resilience of the Libyan armed opposition to his face , I ignored the holding of a secret meeting of the NATO base in Naples in the back of the Atlantic Council . At the time, the United States , the United Kingdom, France , Denmark and Turkey, and Israel , Qatar and Jordan planned in secret use of Alliance assets to bomb Tripoli [ 1 ] . Not trusting their allies , they knew opposed to attack so costly in human lives , they had not been warned. The Atlantic Alliance was no longer a proper Alliance, an ad hoc coalition. In a few days , taking Tripoli made at least 40,000 deaths, according to internal reports of the Red Cross. Such a device may be being organized : the Chiefs of Staff of approximately the same states , plus Saudi Arabia and Canada, gathered since Sunday and until tonight in Amman under the chairmanship of the CentCom commander , General Lloyd J. Austin III. They are considering five options (supplies of weapons to the Contras ; bombing target , creating a no-fly zone , establishment of buffer zones and land invasion ) .
The Atlanticist press calls to war. The London Times ad .
President Barack Obama could well follow the war plan drawn up by his predecessor George W. Bush on 15 September 2001, which provided , in addition to attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq, those of Libya and Syria , and revealed the former Commander of NATO , General Wesley Clark [ 2 ] . Except that , for the first time , the target has strong alliances.
However, the new U.S. rhetoric contradicts all the efforts of the Obama administration last year that applied to eliminate obstacles to the holding of the conference in Geneva 2 : resignation of General David Petraeus and supporters of the war secret , non- reappointment of Hillary Clinton and ultra -Zionist ; indictment of irreducible opposition to an alliance with Russia, especially within NATO and the missile shield . It also contradicts the efforts of John Brennan cause clashes in the Syrian armed opposition to demand the abdication of the Emir of Qatar , and to threaten Saudi Arabia.
Syrian side , we are preparing as much as is possible for any eventuality, including a bombing by NATO against command centers and coordinated an attack by jihadists against the capital ministries. However, the most likely option is not triggering a regional war that would overflow the Western powers. It is an attack in the fall , supervised by Saudi Arabia and endorsed by the fighters it currently recruiting . Eventually, this process could be supported by the Arab League.